The EUR/USD pair has shown signs of recovery after a medium-term bearish trend, entering a potential reversal phase and attempting to establish a new market structure for the next move.
Market Structure Overview
After a Break of Structure (BoS) around the 1.1580 level, buyers began to show early signs of strength.
The curved green trendline represents gradual buying pressure supporting higher lows.
However, the price still hasn’t managed to break above the key supply zone (highlighted in red between 1.1780 – 1.1820), which continues to act as a strong resistance barrier.
Key Zones
🟩 Main Demand Zone:
The area between 1.1560 – 1.1575 serves as a strong demand zone, where previous liquidity grabs triggered bullish reversals.
If price pulls back, this zone is expected to attract buyers again and act as a key support area.
🟥 Major Supply Zone:
The 1.1780 – 1.1820 region represents an active supply zone where sellers have previously entered the market.
A decisive breakout above this level could open the path toward 1.1900.
Possible Scenarios
🔸 Scenario 1 – Bearish Correction:
Price may retrace toward the 1.1560 – 1.1575 demand zone.
If a bullish rejection or reversal candle forms, the next upward target would likely be around 1.1780.
🔸 Scenario 2 – Continuation of the Current Upswing:
If buyers manage to hold above 1.1650, the market may push directly toward the 1.1780 resistance area.
The reaction around this zone will be crucial in determining the medium-term direction.
🔸 Scenario 3 – Deeper Downside Move:
A clear break below 1.1560 could trigger further downside momentum, extending the move toward 1.1500 or even 1.1450.
Summary
- The short-term trend remains bullish (corrective), while the medium-term structure is still neutral to bearish.
- The 1.1560 – 1.1575 area is the most critical support zone at the moment.
- In the short term, price is likely to range between 1.1560 and 1.1780 until a clear breakout defines the next direction.
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