Over the past week, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced significant volatility. Weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data initially boosted the euro against the dollar. However, as the U.S. Dollar Index regained strength, selling pressure on EUR/USD increased. Traders are now closely watching key economic data releases in the upcoming week, which could define the next major move for the pair.
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD
On the 4-hour chart, EUR/USD showed strong bullish momentum starting from the 1.0700 zone, climbing all the way toward the 1.1500 area. However, this upward move stalled near a key resistance level, triggering a corrective pullback. Currently, the price is consolidating in a tight range between 1.1300 and 1.1400. This range acts as a potential decision zone for the next directional breakout.
The 1.14800 level remains a critical resistance. A breakout above this level would activate a bullish scenario, with buyers potentially pushing the price toward the 1.1600 zone and higher within the ascending channel. Conversely, failure to break above 1.14800 could lead to further downside correction, possibly targeting the demand zone between 1.09917 and 1.09122 — a key static support from previous price action.
The current market sentiment appears indecisive, as both buyers and sellers await a catalyst. Any major fundamental event could trigger sharp volatility.
Key Economic Events Impacting EUR/USD This Week
This week features several high-impact economic releases that could significantly influence EUR/USD price action:
Tuesday, June 3:
Eurozone CPI (Inflation Data) – A critical indicator for the ECB’s future rate decisions.
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings – A key metric for assessing the strength of the U.S. labor market.
Wednesday, June 4:
U.S. ADP Employment Report – Often considered a preview of the official NFP data.
Bank of Canada Rate Decision – While not directly related to EUR/USD, shifts in broader risk sentiment could spill over.
Thursday, June 5:
ECB Monetary Policy Statement and Press Conference – Likely to have a direct and immediate impact on the euro.
Friday, June 6:
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) and Unemployment Rate – The most important release of the week. Depending on the data, it could lead to a sharp move either up or down in the EUR/USD pair.
Conclusion
EUR/USD is currently trading in a pivotal range, and the upcoming economic events will likely provide the necessary momentum for a breakout. Traders should closely monitor these key data releases for potential trading opportunities.
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