Over the past week, the gold market has been driven by U.S. monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions. U.S. job data came in weaker than expected, strengthening the case for potential rate cuts in the coming months. Meanwhile, ongoing concerns about China’s economic slowdown and rising Middle East tensions have supported safe-haven demand for gold.
However, the U.S. dollar index remains relatively strong, capping any significant upside momentum for gold. Investors are now focused on the upcoming U.S. inflation data (CPI), which could provide critical clues about the Fed’s next moves.
Technical Analysis: Buyers and Sellers Battle at Key Levels
The 1-hour chart of gold (XAU/USD) shows the price consolidating between the resistance zone of 3355 – 3363 and the support zone of 3325 – 3330 after breaking a descending trendline drawn from previous highs.
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✅ Key Resistance Levels:
3355 – 3363: A break above this zone with strong volume could pave the way for a rally toward 3380 and potentially 3400.
✅ Key Support Levels:
3325 – 3330: A break below this zone may trigger a drop toward the next support area at 3295 – 3305 (highlighted in pink).
Possible Scenarios on Gold
✅ Bullish Scenario: A confirmed breakout above 3363 could attract buyers, aiming for 3380 and higher levels.
✅ Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below 3325 could intensify selling pressure, targeting the 3295 – 3305 support area.
Conclusion
In the short term, gold is consolidating within a critical range. Traders should remain cautious as the upcoming U.S. CPI release could serve as a major catalyst for the next directional move. Waiting for clear breakouts above resistance or below support could provide higher probability trade setups.
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