China’s New Five-Year Plan: Tech Independence and a Consumer-Driven Economy

China has outlined a new course in its 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), focusing on technological self-reliance and boosting domestic consumption. The strategy aims to reduce dependence on Western technology while addressing geopolitical pressures and a slowing economy.

This plan shifts China’s growth model from speed to quality. By 2035, the government targets raising per capita GDP from around $14,000 to between $25,000 and $30,000 — a goal that requires an average annual growth rate of about 4.5%.

At the heart of the plan lies technological self-sufficiency. Annual R&D spending is set to rise by at least 7%, reaching 3.2% of GDP by 2030. Priorities include strengthening basic research, expanding AI infrastructure, and applying advanced technologies such as quantum computing, bioengineering, and brain-computer interfaces.

On the domestic front, Beijing seeks to increase the role of household consumption in driving economic growth. The plan emphasizes expanding social services — including education, healthcare, and elderly care — to shift the high-saving habits of Chinese households toward greater spending.

According to UBS analysts, this roadmap continues China’s transition from a property-driven model to a technology and production-based economy — though it faces growing challenges amid intensified tech competition and U.S. restrictions.