As the energy market faces structural shifts and slower economic growth in some regions, OPEC has revised down its global oil demand projections for the coming years. This adjustment could impact oil producers and influence energy policy decisions worldwide.
Demand Forecast Cut for 2026–2029
According to OPEC’s latest report, average global oil demand in 2026 is expected to reach 106.3 million barrels per day (bpd), down from the previous estimate of 108 million bpd. The forecast for 2029 has also been revised to 111.6 million bpd. However, OPEC’s projection for 2030 remains unchanged at 113.3 million bpd.
In contrast, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts that global oil demand will peak at 105.6 million bpd in 2029 and begin a gradual decline thereafter.
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Summary
Despite slowing demand growth in countries like China, OPEC emphasized that there are no signs of peak oil demand and projected consumption to climb to 122.9 million bpd by 2050—a figure significantly higher than forecasts from other international organizations such as BP. These differing outlooks highlight the ongoing debate over the future trajectory of the oil market.
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